GDPLive predicts NZ’s surprise Q2 GDP growth

Photo by Partha Narasimhan on Unsplash

The New Zealand economy surged 2.8% (quarter on quarter) in the second quarter of 2021 taking most forecasters by surprise. Market expectations were for a slowdown and a 1.1% growth after the relatively robust 1.4% q/q increase in the first quarter. GDPlive’s machine learning model was an outlier, showing a much more optimistic prediction on June 30th of 3% for the quarter — very close to the official figures.

The strong GDP figures reflect the positive momentum of the New Zealand economy following a recession in 2020. The country had been COVID-free until an outbreak of the highly infectious Delta strain in August, which plunged Auckland into a lockdown for five weeks — the longest lockdown since the pandemic began. This latest turn of events is reflected in the current GDPLive data which is showing current growth slumping to 0%. It is a reminder that the effects of the pandemic are still being felt and that the volatility will continue for some time yet